With Russia’s war against Ukraine, the belt of instability in the Sahel, and spiralling war in the Middle East, the next geopolitical crisis seemingly unravels in East Asia as North Korea shifted to a hostile stance towards its Southern neighbour. This dynamic not only indicates that we are likely to witness another international standoff in what we know as a shifting global balance of power but also that all the abovementioned conflicts have a common denominator - a clash of actors backed by the revisionist and established powers. Therefore, the Korean Peninsula can yet again become a theatre for deciding the nature of the international order for the decades to come.

Assessing the stability of multipolar international systems

Signals that the war in Ukraine is in a stalemate are correct.

Multiple Ukrainian officials, both civil and military, have recently hinted at the static nature of the battlefield in Ukraine. Tthe indications of a stalemate in the war are accurate, aligning with the assessment we have promoted for almost the past 12 months. The most likely outcome is a post-Soviet-style frozen conflict with the prospect of mutual hostilities along the line of contact persisting for decades.

The military coup orchestrated by Prigozhin has been meticulously planned, showcasing an impressive display of force with the involvement of 300 military vehicles and thousands of soldiers. However, those who perceive this as a failure overlook the fact that Prigozhin's advance towards Moscow encountered minimal resistance, facilitated by the evacuation of the ruling Russian elite from the city, effectively leaving it in the hands of Wagner PMC.

The military coup in Russia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner PMC, highlights the deep divisions between the MoD and the PMC.

Behind the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine, the grander strategic goals of the Russian Federation have been revealed. Russia has become an openly revisionist actor that aims to promote a multipolar order in which Russia's great power status and seat amongst the most powerful are taken for granted. Here are four observations about the Russian strategy after one year of the conflict.

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Map credit: Institute for the Study of War

The domino effect caused by Poland's decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is gaining momentum as Finland, and the UK pledged to send their main battle tanks to Ukraine. This development represents a significant breakthrough in military equipment supplies to Ukraine.
What does it mean in terms of the conflict´s power dynamic?

Despite the numerous signs of the material, personal, and tactical exhaustion of the Russian Army, the renewed offensive is amongst likely Russian strategic options considering the massive air campaign protracting from September this year, unless the air raids are the least remaining viable tactical option for Kremlin as per my earlier assessment from autumn 2022.

First and foremost, the watchful observers of Russian military bloggers’ criticism can conclude that the meeting appeared as damage control after 300 days of failures. The Minister of Defense and President tried to address all criticism in their speeches. On top of that, Putin spoke about the need to address criticism with patience and in contemporary ways.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has unveiled more of Russian thinking on foreign policy to the world. Faced with a neighbourhood increasingly looking to the West, Moscow has turned to conflict in an attempt to maintain its power and influence in the region.

The growth of China's international status is likely the most plausible explanation (not the only one, though) behind the China-West competition.

Growth of international status means that the rising actor (China) increases its influence at the expense of the rest established actors (the USA, EU, or Russia, if you will). Therefore, one's ascend means a relative decline of others (relative because you do not necessarily decline in material power – such as economics, military, etc.), as the distribution of power can be described as a limited pool of resources shared amongst the most powerful.

Russian World and Conflicts in the Post Soviet Space