Is Russia planning to renew a massive offensive in Ukraine?
Despite the numerous signs of the material, personal, and tactical exhaustion of the Russian Army, the renewed offensive is amongst likely Russian strategic options considering the massive air campaign protracting from September this year, unless the air raids are the least remaining viable tactical option for Kremlin as per my earlier assessment from autumn 2022.
The two most debated (however, it is hard to assess whether the most likely) scenarios are renewed offensive from the north through Belarus and efforts to break the Ukrainian front lines in the south/south-east.
In favour of renewed offensive are the following dynamics:
- Fresh recruits are finishing their training cycles. The latest Russian official statement says that 150 thousand (of approximately 300 thousand recruits) are being prepared at the polygons in Russia. It remains under question what is going on with the remaining approximately 150 thousand mobilised- likely being dispatched along the frontline.
- Ukrainian General Valeryi Zaluzhny estimated that Russia is preparing an offensive with 200 thousand of fresh troops.
- The unexpected visit of President Zelenskiy in DC amid the worsening situation in Ukraine.
- Various signs of new equipment being delivered to the frontline or neighbouring regions.
- Putin-Lukashenko meeting in Belarus and subsequent military-related events in Belarus.
- On 21.12.2022, Belarus restricted access to border territories with Ukraine and Russia. The government website says it would “temporarily restrict entry, temporary stay and movement in the border zone within the Loevsky, Braginsky and Khoiniki districts of the Gomel region”.
- The Belarusian Army has put on war alert S400 systems and Iskander systems.
- Increased movement of troops across Belarus- Russian field hospitals were spotted too. President Lukashenko explained that the Belarussian Army was alert and increased the pace of military exercises as its NATO neighbours were planning to attack the country (highly unlikely).
Against
- Relative stalemate on the frontline after successful Ukrainian counter-offensive
- Russia suffered heavy losses and lacked experienced combat-ready units (unverified assessment)
- Russian mil bloggers, including the failing logistics, heavily criticised insufficient equipment and terrible conditions on the frontlines.
- If the Russian command plans to reopen the northern front, the December 2022 data show that only 7 % of the Belarussian population supports their country in openly entering the war.
- Capturing Kyiv would be a tactically very difficult and costly task, but a potential siege with heavy artillery shelling can be an option(disastrous), too.
Final assessments:
Attack from Belarus
- Though it is still unlikely that Belarus will enter the conflict directly, Russia might use Belarus to reopen the northern front and try to siege Kyiv (a potential siege of Kyiv will most likely turn into a humanitarian catastrophe). It is uncertain whether the current positioning and political messaging, such as the earlier extended meeting of President Putin with MoD, are not just informational warfare methods. In such an instance, the constant threat of the northern front reopening could be a mid-term strategy to keep Ukrainian forces stretched thin.
- The most likely status quo at the moment
At the current juncture, the Russian command has not decided on the strategy of the potential offensive, and the current stage is more a tactical assessment of potential gaps in Ukrainian defence- an assessment backed by increased activity of Russian commanders’ inspections over the frontline.
- The most likely scenario
Russian Army will try to renew the offensive during the winter months at the peak of the aerial campaign and gain momentum on the ground.
At the moment, Russia is preparing informational grounds for several scenarios of attack in order to confuse the opponent, but the precise direction of new attack remains unknown.
