Crisis DeBrief:Will struggle for power in Russian military turn into coup´d etat?

Analysis:
The military coup in Russia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner PMC, highlights the deep divisions between the MoD and the PMC.

Since the launch of the invasion, we regularly assessed that the Kremlin elite led by Vladimir Putin had undermined their positions as they opened a way for more extreme voices to criticise them and question their legitimacy.

The government's response and the extent of support for Prigozhin's actions among regular MoD forces indicates that the coup has been in preparation for some time.

Passivity/support from the MoD forces is also grounded in long-lasting internal issues contributing to the low morale within the Russian Army.

The involvement of high-level security agencies such as the FSB indicates the seriousness of the situation and the potential for escalation.

Situation Overview:
The recent events in Russia indicate the occurrence of a military coup led by Yevgeny Prigozhin (PMC). This coup represents a new phase in the long-standing conflict between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the PMC, which has been critical of the MoD's handling the invasion.

The government has taken legal actions against Prigozhin, including charging him with inciting an armed rebellion. The Federal Security Service (FSB) has initiated a criminal case, and the Russian National Antiterrorism Committee (NAK) has warned that Prigozhin's actions may lead to a civil conflict in Russia.

Government Response and Security Measures:
The government, including the Ministry of Defence, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Russian Guard, has been providing regular reports to President Vladimir Putin regarding the measures taken to address the attempted armed rebellion.

The FSB has called on Wagner PMC fighters to detain Prigozhin and refuse to follow his orders. In response to the situation, Moscow has heightened security, deploying special forces of the National Guard and increasing vigilance at critical locations.

The M-4 Don highway leading out of Rostov-on-Don has been temporarily blocked, and police patrols have been deployed on central streets.

The neighbouring Krasnodar Territory remains calm and under control, with no additional security measures implemented.

So what?
The ongoing military coup raises uncertainties about its potential outcomes and impacts. While the victory of Wagner PMCs may not necessarily benefit Ukraine and its Western allies, it represents a hard-line wing within the Russian elite.

The coup's dynamics, including whether it will remain confined to the military forces or extend to challenge the Kremlin itself, are yet to be determined.

With President Putin aligned with the MoD, it is unlikely that he has any choice but to confront Prigozhin and attempt to suppress the ongoing coup.

Map: M4 Highway

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