Ukraine´s frontline is likely to transform into frozen conflict in the coming months

The rocket strikes are likely the only viable strategic option Russia has at this point and therefore, it will highly likely use the threats of strikes on critical infrastructure during winter as a bargaining chip in potential peace talks.

By contrast, we see that Russia has exhausted most of its land-campaign possibilities, and, in the next few months, we will likely witness the war becoming a text-book frozen conflict in the post-Soviet space. As a result, we would witness similar situations to the post-2014 in Eastern Ukraine or Nagorno Karabakh. Several dynamics are unfolding in favour of my argument:

1. Even though the Russian mobilisation has not proven to be destabilising for the Kremlin, as the local authorities found enough manpower, the failing logistics and incapability to supply both reservists and frontline are proving to be the most significant internal threats to the Russian campaign. (yet, there is a low chance we will witness a disinformation campaign aiming to persuade the West that Russia is weak) 2. Despite their bravery and the recent momentum, Ukrainian forces are also becoming exhausted and suffering significant losses. 3. It is likely that the biggest threat to Ukraine now are Russian air raids capable of shutting down the critical infrastructure in the entire country. 4. The current status quo is not plausible for either side, but compromises are usually born with the satisfaction of neither of the warring sides. We should also expect that the current solution will not be finite as both sides will likely wait for the window of opportunity to change the status quo- as the data from the frozen conflicts show. 5. Economic turbulences in the World are becoming too destabilising to sustain an expensive war for an extended period of time. 6. For the first time since the conflict started, Russia, Ukraine and the US as primary donor to the war-torn country, all admit a chance for peace talks.

PS: Faulty Russian rockets / Ukrainian air defence rockets hitting the Polish soil was one of the possible further escalation scenarios about which many analysts warned earlier. It is good that NATO allies kept restraint and the situation has not escalated.