Stalemate in Ukraine

Signals that the war in Ukraine is in a stalemate are correct.

Multiple Ukrainian officials, both civil and military, have recently hinted at the static nature of the battlefield in Ukraine. As our team members have recently returned from a two-week trip to the south and east of Ukraine, the indications of a stalemate in the war are accurate, aligning with the assessment we have been promoting for almost the past 12 months. The most likely outcome is a post-Soviet-style frozen conflict with the prospect of mutual hostilities along the line of contact persisting for decades.

Here are a few reasons why we assess so:

A. Since the fall of Bakhmut, the frontlines have been largely static, and even with this development, the gains/losses on both sides were largely marginal.
B. My observations have shown that an inhabitable ground-zero has been created along the frontline.
C. Demography problems. The population that wanted to live in Ukraine has already fled, and the rest that have stayed in occupied territories are either a.) pro-Russian, b.) indifferent about who rules there, or c.) a marginal silent minority.
D. Major battlefields such as the Zaporizhzhia front or Kupyansk and Avdiivka are well-fortified areas. In the first mentioned, there is little chance that UKRAF can break through the fortifications, while the others are either well-defended hilly areas, or the difficult terrain starts right behind them (Avdiivka).
E. Neither of the sides currently possesses enough capabilities to break through the enemy lines.
F. In a war of attrition, which trench warfare undoubtedly is, Russia possesses more manpower, equipment, and ammunition.
G. Therefore, the current battles are likely being fought to improve positions before peace talks. In my assessment, these talks are likely to take place after the planned Ukrainian presidential elections.
I. However, negotiated peace is unlikely to last. Both sides have gained significant experience in modern warfare, and their militaries are now battle-hardened. Military industries have also become large parts of their economies. Ukraine is likely to lose more territory compared to 2014, while Russia has not achieved its operational goals. Therefore, it is improbable that peace will endure, and both actors will seek to revise the status quo when the opportunity arises.