For two weeks now, Russia has been gradually intensifying offensive efforts along the frontline to an extent where we can say that the Russian army has retaken the initiative. However, this is unlikely to be the peak of the offensive as Russian leadership will want to portray itself as the more active warring side on February 24th.

The estimates vary from 150 to 500 thousand Russian troops amassed along the frontline, excess mechanised brigades and Russia conducted a series of massive aerial attacks over the past few days. Russian officials claim they plan to mobilise up to 670 thousand soldiers, including earlier mobilised conscripts.

The numbers were historically Russia´s most significant battlefield advantage as Russia has been sustaining the biggest European army in terms of manpower for a good part of its imperial history.

Heavy Russian losses are likely to be accurate as the Russian private intelligence community unleashed the wave of criticism on the MoD that was supposed to lead the operations instead of Wagner PMCs.

We have little or no information about Ukraine´s army condition. Therefore, it is hard to estimate whether they can hold their positions. Yet the recent round of president Zelensky´s foreign visits might hint at the dire need for military help to Ukraine.

However, it is unlikely that Ukraine will receive an excess amount of heavy weaponry from the EU states, as there is a lack of such weapons in the EU. Otherwise, the EU countries would have to spare their operational military capacities, i.e. diminish their own defense capabilities.

The second issue we keep reminding is the EUs military-industrial capacity which is largely limited and incapable of sustaining the frontline supplies along the scheduled production.

At the current juncture, both sides maintain maximalist goals. Russia occupies 17 % of Ukraine´s territory, and Ukraine´s survival depends on Western help. Therefore, the amount and speed of new supplies and training of mobilised citizens will continue to determine the ability of Ukraine to defend itself.