The military coup orchestrated by Prigozhin has been meticulously planned, showcasing an impressive display of force with the involvement of 300 military vehicles and thousands of soldiers. However, those who perceive this as a failure overlook the fact that Prigozhin's advance towards Moscow encountered minimal resistance, facilitated by the evacuation of the ruling Russian elite from the city, effectively leaving it in the hands of Wagner PMC.

While it is premature to gauge the full ramifications of this weekend's events, it is evident that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues its regular propaganda efforts, such as the Minister's visit to the Western Military District, and the overall dynamics on the battlefield remain unchanged.

This weekend revealed two significant internal dynamics:

1. Russian society has reached a point of profound depoliticization. In Rostov, prom celebrations continued amidst the presence of tanks and mercenaries occupying the city, with recent graduates even taking pictures alongside them (see picture). In Moscow, as the Prigozhin coup loomed, people sought solace in parks. This division signifies two entirely separate worlds within Russia: a civil society detached from the elite struggle for power.

2. As has been assessed numerous times since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Putin has unleashed forces beyond his control. The ruling elite's actions have exposed their governance failures and the shortcomings of the army, inevitably leading to legitimate criticism and questioning of their legitimacy. Prigozhin represents a faction of the Russian oligarchy vying for power, while others are likely to follow.

So what truly transpired in Russia over the weekend?

Prigozhin had the opportunity to seize Moscow without significant resistance, yet he opted for an exile negotiated by Lukashenko, the specifics of which remain undisclosed. Given Prigozhin's role as a mere pawn for the oligarchs behind the Wagner PMCs, his "March of Justice" has become symbolic of a revolt against the old political elite. Regrettably, it is directed towards the Yeltsinian elite, which, despite its imperfections, could be considered as moderate.

Therefore, despite the absence of overt changes in Russian politics, the highest echelons of power are experiencing tremors. However, there is little cause for celebration, as the upheaval is being driven by hardline forces. We have long highlighted this issue, as Russian propaganda has been cultivating radical anti-Western sentiments, and the next generation of Russian decision-makers is likely to harbor genuine hostility towards the West and the values it represents.

Writing this assessment reaffirms our prior understanding of the internal dynamics in Russia, and as the power transition unfolds (albeit subject to potential alterations), we sincerely hope to be proven wrong.

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